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A detailed computer modeling study released today indicates that oil from the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico might soon extend along thousands of miles of the Atlantic coast and open ocean as early as this summer. The modeling results are captured in a series of dramatic animations produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and collaborators.
This animation shows one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean. This is not a forecast, but rather, it illustrates a likely dispersal pathway of the oil for roughly four months following the spill. It assumes oil spilling continuously from April 20 to June 20. The colors represent a dilution factor ranging from red (most concentrated) to beige (most diluted).  The dilution factor does not attempt to estimate the actual barrels of oil at any spot; rather, it depicts how much of the total oil from the source that will be carried elsewhere by ocean currents. For example, areas showing a dilution factor of 0.01 would have one-hundredth the concentration of oil present at the spill site.
The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios released today that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf.
“I’ve had a lot of people ask me, ‘Will the oil reach Florida?’” says NCAR scientist Synte Peacock, who worked on the study. “Actually, our best knowledge says the scope of this environmental disaster is likely to reach far beyond Florida, with impacts that have yet to be understood.”
The computer simulations indicate that, once the oil in the uppermost ocean has become entrained in the Gulf of Mexico’s fast-moving Loop Current, it is likely to reach Florida’s Atlantic coast within weeks. It can then move north as far as about Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with the Gulf Stream, before turning east. Whether the oil will be a thin film on the surface or mostly subsurface due to mixing in the uppermost region of the ocean is not known.

A detailed computer modeling study released today indicates that oil from the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico might soon extend along thousands of miles of the Atlantic coast and open ocean as early as this summer. The modeling results are captured in a series of dramatic animations produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and collaborators.This animation shows one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean. This is not a forecast, but rather, it illustrates a likely dispersal pathway of the oil for roughly four months following the spill. It assumes oil spilling continuously from April 20 to June 20. The colors represent a dilution factor ranging from red (most concentrated) to beige (most diluted).  The dilution factor does not attempt to estimate the actual barrels of oil at any spot; rather, it depicts how much of the total oil from the source that will be carried elsewhere by ocean currents. For example, areas showing a dilution factor of 0.01 would have one-hundredth the concentration of oil present at the spill site.The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios released today that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf.
“I’ve had a lot of people ask me, ‘Will the oil reach Florida?’” says NCAR scientist Synte Peacock, who worked on the study. “Actually, our best knowledge says the scope of this environmental disaster is likely to reach far beyond Florida, with impacts that have yet to be understood.”
The computer simulations indicate that, once the oil in the uppermost ocean has become entrained in the Gulf of Mexico’s fast-moving Loop Current, it is likely to reach Florida’s Atlantic coast within weeks. It can then move north as far as about Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with the Gulf Stream, before turning east. Whether the oil will be a thin film on the surface or mostly subsurface due to mixing in the uppermost region of the ocean is not known.

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Tired of being mixed up between gallons, imperial or US, barrels of oil and flow rate?

Let’s go metric to help us understand the scale of the disaster unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico.

The inner diameter of the pipe (the riser) is 20 inches or 0,508 meters

Which gives us a surface at the mouth of the pipe of 0,203 m2

This means that one meter of pipe carries 203 liters of oil.

The experts and scientists are all falling over each other attempting to calculate the flow rate.  A Federal Team was even created on the 20th May 2010  in order to determine the flow rate !!!

One meter per second of flow, would give us 60 meters per minute and 3,6 km per hour. About the walking speed of a normal man.

That small flow rate of one meter per second gives us 600 metric tons* of oil per hour and 14400 metric tons per 24 hour period.

In a 30 day period: 432 000 metric tons or more than one and a half AMOCO CADIZ Do you want to know more? per month.

At that rate, it has already over-passed the IXTOC more oil spill of 480,000 metric tons on the 23rd of May.

At that rate if will reach the level of the first Gulf War spills of 1,5 MILLION TONS more at the beginning of August 2010.

And this is only based on a rate of flow of 1 meter per second!

It is shocking to find out that BP has refused to allow scientists to perform more accurate, independent measurements of the flow, claiming that it is not relevant to the response and that such efforts might distract from efforts to stem the flow.

But then, everything in the situation is shocking and disgusting.

“A jolly bad job that definitely deserves a slap on the wrist!”

*One tonne (metric ton) of crude oil is roughly equal to 308 US gallons or 7.33 barrels and 1 oil barrel is equal to 42 US gallons approx.

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The Three Fishermen and the Mermaid

Three fishermen were fishing when they came upon a mermaid, the mermaid offered them one wish each so the first fisherman said: “double my I.Q” so the mermaid did it and to his surprise he started reciting Shakespeare.

Then the second fisherman said: “triple my I.Q.” and sure enough the mermaid did it and amazingly he started solving math problems he didn’t know existed.

The third fisherman was so impressed he asked the mermaid to quadruple his I.Q and the mermaid said “Are you sure about this? It will change your whole life!” the fisherman said “yes” so the mermaid turned him into a woman.

Why Fishing is better than making love

* When you go fishing and you catch something, that’s good.
If you’re making love and you catch something, that’s bad.

* Fish don’t compare you to other fishermen neither.
And don’t want to know how many other fish you caught.

* In fishing you lie about the one that got away.
In loving you lie about the one you caught.

* You can catch and release a fish, you don’t have to lie, and promise to
still be friends after you let it go.

* You don’t necessarily have to change your line to keep catching fish.

* You can catch a fish on a 20-cent frozen squid.
If you want to catch a woman you’re talking dinner and a movie minimum.

* Fish don’t mind if you fall asleep in the middle of fishing. (more…)

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Pelagia-noctilucaNorthern Ireland’s only salmon farm was completely wiped out by a freak jellyfish attack, the owners said Wednesday.

More than 100,000 fish worth more than one million pounds were killed in the invasion at Glenarm Bay and Red Bay, on the County Antrim north-east coast. “We are still assessing the full extent, but it’s a disaster,” said John Russell, managing director of Northern Salmon Co. Ltd. “In 30 years, I’ve never seen anything like it. It was unprecedented, absolutely amazing. The sea was red with these jellyfish and there was nothing we could do about it, absolutely nothing.” “I have never experienced such concentrations of jellyfish spread over such a wide area. The vastness was unbelievable.”

The seven-hour attack over Tuesday and Wednesday last week saw the jellyfish covering a sea area of up to 10 square miles (26 square kilometres) and 35 feet (11 metres) deep. “It’s touch and go if we can survive this,” added Russell whose firm supplies salmon worldwide. “It’s a disaster.”

(more…)

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